Petrol and Diesel Prices in Pakistan Likely to Surge from July 1, 2025
Islamabad, June 28, 2025 – Pakistanis are bracing for a significant hike in fuel prices starting July 1, 2025, with petrol and diesel expected to rise by PKR 10–15 per liter, according to preliminary projections by the Oil and Gas Regulatory Authority (OGRA). Petrol, currently at PKR 258.43 per liter, could climb to PKR 268.43–273.43, while high-speed diesel (HSD) at PKR 262.59 per liter may hit PKR 272.59–277.59. The increase, pending approval by the Finance Ministry and Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, is driven by global oil market trends, new fiscal levies, and currency fluctuations.
| Category | Details |
|---|---|
| Current Petrol Price | PKR 258.43 per liter (June 16, 2025) |
| Current Diesel Price | PKR 262.59 per liter (June 16, 2025) |
| Expected Increase (July 1) | Petrol: +PKR 10–15 per liter; Diesel: +PKR 10–15 per liter |
| Projected Prices | Petrol: PKR 268.43–273.43; Diesel: PKR 272.59–277.59 |
| Reasons | Global oil price hike, new levies, PKR depreciation |
| Source | Oil & Gas Regulatory Authority (OGRA), industry reports |
Why Are Prices Increasing?
- Global Oil Surge: International crude oil prices have spiked due to Middle East tensions, with the OPEC basket price rising from USD 63.18/barrel (May 30, 2025) to USD 69.15/barrel (June 12, 2025). Gas oil and gasoline prices jumped 10.3% and 5.8%, respectively, impacting Pakistan’s import costs.
- New Levies: The government plans to raise the Petroleum Development Levy (PDL) to PKR 100 per liter from PKR 78.2 (petrol) and PKR 77.1 (diesel), aligning with IMF conditions under the USD 7 billion Extended Fund Facility. A new PKR 2.5 per liter carbon levy on petrol, diesel, and furnace oil is also proposed, effective July 1, to promote eco-friendly policies.
- Rupee Depreciation: The Pakistani rupee, at PKR 283.91 per USD (June 27), has weakened by 1.90% in 2025, making imported fuel costlier.
- Fiscal Adjustments: OGRA’s adjustments include a PKR 1.13 per liter increase in Oil Marketing Companies’ margins and PKR 1.40 per liter for petroleum dealers, adding to retail prices to sustain the supply chain.
Impact on Consumers
- Higher Costs: A PKR 10–15 hike will raise commuting expenses. For example, filling a 40-liter tank (e.g., Honda City) will cost PKR 10,737–10,937, up from PKR 10,337. Transport and goods prices may rise, pushing inflation (29% in 2023).
- Industries: Diesel’s increase will hit agriculture and transport sectors, raising costs for farmers and logistics firms, potentially increasing food prices.
- Households: With 45% of Pakistanis below the poverty line, higher fuel costs will strain budgets, especially for daily commuters and small businesses.
Recent Price Trends
- June 2025: Petrol rose by PKR 4.80 to PKR 258.43 (June 16) and PKR 1 to PKR 253.63 (June 1). Diesel increased by PKR 7.95 to PKR 262.59 (June 16) but stayed at PKR 254.64 (June 1).
- 2024 Peak: Petrol hit PKR 275.60 per liter (July 15, 2024), with a record high of PKR 331.38 (Sept 16, 2023).
- Context: Despite occasional reductions (e.g., PKR 2 on April 30, 2025), frequent hikes reflect Pakistan’s reliance on imported oil (85% of supply).
What It Means for Pakistanis
- Commuters: Plan budgets for higher fuel costs. A full tank for a 40-liter car may cost an extra PKR 400–600 monthly. Consider fuel-efficient vehicles like the Honda City 2025 (12–13 km/l city).
- Businesses: Logistics firms should lock in fuel contracts to hedge against price spikes. Small businesses may face higher operational costs.
- Investors: Energy stocks like OGDCL and Mari Petroleum may rise with oil prices (Mari up 1.93% to PKR 3,510 in Sept 2024). Monitor July 1 announcements.
Final Word
The looming PKR 10–15 per liter hike in petrol and diesel prices from July 1, 2025, driven by global oil spikes, new levies, and a weaker rupee, will challenge Pakistan’s inflation-hit consumers.
Disclaimer: Prices based on June 28, 2025, projections from OGRA and industry reports. Final rates await Finance Ministry approval on July 1.
